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A Survey of Fiscal Sustainability and Economic Growth (Japanese)


  • KOBAYASHI Keiichiro


Japan's public debt is increasing exponentially, and it is a primary policy objective to restore its sustainability. In this paper, I survey the existing research on the sustainability of the public debt in Japan and find that it might be necessary either to increase the consumption tax rate by 30% or implement a systematic fiscal consolidation plan lasting more than 100 years. Furthermore, I survey the research on the "public debt overhang," which shows that the economic growth rate decreases by about 1% if the public debt exceeds 90% of the gross domestic product (GDP). I also examine theoretical explanations of the public debt overhang. These findings indicate that restoring the sustainability of the public debt can enhance long-term economic growth.

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  • KOBAYASHI Keiichiro, 2013. "A Survey of Fiscal Sustainability and Economic Growth (Japanese)," Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) 13004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:13004

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    1. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, January.
    2. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "Convergence and International Factor Flows in Theory and History," NBER Working Papers 5798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fujita, Masahisa & Krugman, Paul & Mori, Tomoya, 1999. "On the evolution of hierarchical urban systems1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 209-251, February.
    4. Fujita, Masahisa & Tabuchi, Takatoshi, 1997. "Regional growth in postwar Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 643-670, November.
    5. Brezis, Elise S & Krugman, Paul R & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1993. "Leapfrogging in International Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1211-1219, December.
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