Development of Statistical Accuracy Improvement Methodology for Oil Refinery Sector's Energy and Carbon Balance and Statistical Accuracy on Japanese General Energy Statistics (Japanese)

Current Japanese General Energy Statistics quantifies energy and carbon balance of oil refinery sector solely by input such as crude oil and output such as gasoline, and regards the discrepancy as a statistical error and does not count energy consumption or energy origin carbon dioxide emission for the discrepancy. But issues are raised by a related committee of Ministry of the Environment that some part of the discrepancy of oil refinery sector might contain energy consumption and energy origin carbon dioxide emission such as oil coke incineration emission associated with fluid-bed cracking catalyzer refreshment in the heavy oil dissolving processes. So, further statistical accuracy improvement for oil refinery sector's energy and carbon balance had been required. The author developed new methodology to identify the part that is estimated as an energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission such as fluid-bed cracking catalyzer and another part that is estimated as a statistical error from current discrepancy in this paper, by quantifying precise energy and carbon balance of oil refinery sector in the past, based on various related official statistics and using new calorific value and carbon emission factor that would be applied after FY2013 statistics and other brand new available information. Based on the results, the author recommends that energy consumption and energy origin carbon dioxide emissions such as oil coke incineration emission associated with fluid-bed cracking catalyzer refreshment in the heavy oil dissolving processes should be quantified and reported using the methodology and improve oil refinery sector's energy and carbon balance statistical accuracy.