Quantitative Analysis of the "Rumor-based Economical Damage" for Sightseeing Industry Caused by Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Station Accident (Japanese)

The Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Station Accident in March 2011 caused radioactive pollution problems of neighborhood area and also caused steep decrease of tourist number who visit and stay hotels, restaurants, sightseeing attractions and so on in the neighborhood area. The decrease continued several months and resulted in the economical damage to the sightseeing industry located in the area. More than two years have already elapsed and the tourist number recovered the pre-accident level in most of the area, but there still remains significant damage in some area due to the tourist's concern of pollution although most of the area are not actually polluted at all; due to the phenomena so called "rumor-based economical damages." The Tokyo Electric Power Company is liable for the damage and paying compensation for the damage including the "rumor-based economical damages" in accordance with the guideline of Government of Japan, but they are not sure whether the "rumor-based economical damages" are still existing, due to the simplification and speed up of the procedures of compensation payment; although that may cause some problems that the compensation may be used out of the original purposes. The author developed two quantitative judgement criteria to examine the existence of the "rumor-based economical damage" using statistical methodologies such as average treatment effect, and applied them to the regional tourist statistics of 28 major sightseeing area issued by 5 Prefectures, and analyzed and evaluated the results. The author found that the "rumor-based economical damage" still exists in Eastern and Middle Fukushima Region, Aizu-Central and Aizu-South Region, Nikko Region of Tochigi Prefecture and Northern Region of Ibaragi Prefecture at the point of 4th quarter 2012. And the damage has been recovered in Gumma Prefecture and most part of the Tochigi and Ibaragi Prefecture already. The author estimates that these regional difference of the damage is caused by following reasons; the distance from the Power Station and polluted area, specific decrease of tourists who visit Aizu and Nikko Region for historical and cultural tour and hot spring bathing tour, and decrease of sea bating and fishing tourists under the influence of the polluted water leakage accidents at the Power Station. Then the author recommends that simplified compensation payment procedures should be applied only for certain areas in Fukushima, Ibaragi and Tochigi Prefecture because of the continuation of the "rumor-based economical damage," but further checking systems should be introduced in other areas and other Prefectures where no such phenomena is found.