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Long-term Absenteeism: Effects of cognitive skills, non-cognitive skills, household structure and financial situation

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  • Shinsuke ASAKAWA
  • Mayuko ABE
  • Fumio OHTAKE
  • Shinpei SANO
  • Kazuko NAKATA

Abstract

Using administrative data from Amagasaki City (2019–2023), this study identified the factors associated with long-term absenteeism among elementary and junior high school students. Ordinary least square regressions revealed that students with low mathematics scores and those from single-parent or welfare-recipient households faced a higher risk of long-term absenteeism. Regarding non-cognitive skills, lower levels of extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness and emotional stability, and higher openness correlated with increased absenteeism. Notably, the probability of long-term absence remains substantially higher in 2023 than in 2019, even after controlling these characteristics. Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition shows that the increase in absenteeism during the COVID-19 pandemic was not driven by changes in student attributes but by the amplified impact of academic achievement, non-cognitive skills, and family environment. For elementary school students, class size was also an influential factor. However, a significant portion of the increase remains unexplained by the observed variables, suggesting that uncaptured structural or environmental shifts likely played substantial roles.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinsuke ASAKAWA & Mayuko ABE & Fumio OHTAKE & Shinpei SANO & Kazuko NAKATA, 2026. "Long-term Absenteeism: Effects of cognitive skills, non-cognitive skills, household structure and financial situation," Discussion papers 26026, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:26026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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