Long-term Absenteeism: Effects of cognitive skills, non-cognitive skills, household structure and financial situation

Using administrative data from Amagasaki City (2019–2023), this study identified the factors associated with long-term absenteeism among elementary and junior high school students. Ordinary least square regressions revealed that students with low mathematics scores and those from single-parent or welfare-recipient households faced a higher risk of long-term absenteeism. Regarding non-cognitive skills, lower levels of extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness and emotional stability, and higher openness correlated with increased absenteeism. Notably, the probability of long-term absence remains substantially higher in 2023 than in 2019, even after controlling these characteristics. Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition shows that the increase in absenteeism during the COVID-19 pandemic was not driven by changes in student attributes but by the amplified impact of academic achievement, non-cognitive skills, and family environment. For elementary school students, class size was also an influential factor. However, a significant portion of the increase remains unexplained by the observed variables, suggesting that uncaptured structural or environmental shifts likely played substantial roles.