The (In)Stability of International Marriages in Japan

International marriages and their divorce rates in Japan have increased; however, empirical evidence regarding the underlying factors remains limited. This study examines divorce trends among international couples in Japan by comparing the divorce rates of Japanese–Japanese couples to those of Japanese–non-Japanese couples using data from the Population Census and Vital Statistics for 1995–2020. Binomial logistic regression for grouped data reveals significantly higher divorce rates for international couples than for Japanese–Japanese couples, although this gap has narrowed over time. Approximately 20% of this difference is explained by the wife’s age and the age gap between spouses. Using characteristics of non-Japanese spouses’ home countries, we find that larger within-couple disparities in age and GDP increase the risk of divorce, whereas greater distance in cultural and gender norms contributes to marital stability. These findings suggest that the complex interplay of cultural, economic, and institutional factors shapes divorce risk in international marriages.