Interim Employment and a Leading Indicator for the Belgian Labour Market
This paper focuses on the construction of a leading indicator for the Belgian labour market based on labour market variables. It is shown that our employment indicator constructed from monthly data on interim work and business failures: (1) resembles quite well the cyclical pattern of observed employment in Belgium; (2) performs not significantly better when product market variables are added; (3) is a better predictor of the cycles in the labour market compared to existing leading indicators for the product market. Furthermore, it was found that even more accurate forecasts of future employment could be derived if information on the past behaviour of total employment (captured by an AR(2)-process) was added to our constructed leading indicator. But this last specification loses its leading character due to long publication delays for the employment data.
|Date of creation:||Mar 1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +32-(0)16-32 67 25
Fax: +32-(0)16-32 67 96
Web page: http://www.econ.kuleuven.be/ew
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces9823. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karla Vander Weyden)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.