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Expectations and Risk Premia in the Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates in Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Honohan

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

  • Charles Conroy

Abstract

The role of expectations in influencing long-term interest rates in Ireland is examined. In the case of long-term securities, interest rate risk is added to exchange rate risk as a barrier to arbitrage between yields at home and abroad. Nevertheless, we find that fluctuations in world interest rates seem to have a strong influence on Irish long rates. Domestic influences are also undoubtedly important, but cannot easily and reliably be modeled in terms of either rational expectations of short rates or inflation, or by reference to quantifiable indicators of confidence such as current inflation differentials or government borrowing.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Honohan & Charles Conroy, 1994. "Expectations and Risk Premia in the Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates in Ireland," Papers WP048, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp048
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    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP048.pdf
    File Function: First version, 1994
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