Contesting the EU Budget and Euroscepticism: A Spiral of Dissent?

The current Eurosceptic political climate in the European Union, known as the ‘constraining dissensus’, may place negotiations on the multiannual EU budget center-stage. If media portray political conflict about the budget as international polarization pitting Member States against each other or against European Union (EU) institutions, it may increase Euroscepticism as such polarization resonates with exclusive national identity perceptions. If the budget is polarized transnationally, emphasizing conflict within Member States, it may alleviate the constraining dissensus as it negates exclusive national identity while strengthening cross-cutting cleavages. This study tests hypotheses about patterns and trends in politicization of the EU budget in three budgets (Delors II, Agenda 2000, Financial Perspectives 2007-2013), three countries (the Netherlands, Denmark and Ireland) and two forums (media and national parliaments) using claims-making analysis and controlled multivariate comparisons. It finds predominant international polarization with no clear trend over time and no clear difference between countries. It therefore seems likely that politicization of the EU budget reinforces the constraining dissensus, rather than loosening it. However, the more politicized budget debates become, the less likely they will stimulate Euroscepticism as the dominance of international polarization decreases.