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The Black Sea Economic Cooperation Project: A Substitute or a Complement to Globalization for the Middle East and the Balkans?

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  • Serdar Sayan

    (Graduate School for Social Sciences, TOBB University of Economics and Technology)

Abstract

This paper evaluates Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) from the perspective of globalization efforts in the Middle East and the Balkans, the regions that future expansion scenarios are most likely to cover. For this purpose, the paper investigates the economic rationale behind the desire to seek/maintain membership, with special reference to the trade creation and diversion effects it could generate. A major challenge here is the size and the quality of data. In addition to the relatively short history of BSEC, the exchange rate and GDP/GNP data are unreliable due to the transition state status of most of the current members (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Greece, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine). To overcome this problem, a version of the so-called gravity model is employed to estimate trade patterns. In addition to trade among current members, the paper considers the implications of membership by Iran, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and by the newly independent republics of former Yugoslavia.

Suggested Citation

  • Serdar Sayan, 1998. "The Black Sea Economic Cooperation Project: A Substitute or a Complement to Globalization for the Middle East and the Balkans?," Working Papers 9806, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 1998.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:9806
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    Cited by:

    1. Kayam, Saime Suna & Hisarciklilar, Mehtap, 2009. "Determinants of Turkish FDI abroad," MPRA Paper 17813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Zelal Kotan & Serdar Sayan, 2001. "A Comparison Of The Price Competitiveness Of Turkish And South East Asian Exports In The European Union Market In The 1990s," Discussion Papers 0102, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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