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The MENA Trade and Regional Conflicts: Causal Evidence from a Disaggregated Analysis

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  • Pinar Tat

    (Gebze Technical UniversityAuthor-Name: Halit Yanikkaya
    Gebze Technical University)

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of trade on conflicts within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The findings indicate that bilateral trade has no significant impact on regional conflicts in the MENA, but this veils substantial heterogeneity. The multilateral trade of manufacturing and agriculture sectors increases the number of conflicts within the region, possibly due to decreased dependence on bilateral ties. The positive effect of multilateral trade is mainly driven by the oil importer MENA countries. Membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is associated with a reduction in conflicts. The results vary when considering oil-exporting and oil-importing countries separately, revealing nuances in the relationship between trade and conflicts within the MENA region.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinar Tat, 2024. "The MENA Trade and Regional Conflicts: Causal Evidence from a Disaggregated Analysis," Working Papers 1745, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Oct 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1745
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