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Determinants of Persistently High Fertility in Sudan

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  • Maia Sieverding

    (American University of Beirut)

Abstract

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Sudan has fluctuated around five births per woman since the early 1990s. New data from the Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS) 2022 demonstrate that this trend has continued, with TFR in 2022 at 4.9 births per woman. Using the SLMPS data, this paper provides a descriptive update, after nearly two decades, to previous literature on the determinants of persistently high fertility in Sudan. The analysis addresses both selected proximate and background determinants of fertility. In addition to rural/urban differentials, there is a strong negative educational gradient in fertility. The TFR is 3.2 births lower among women with some secondary education than those with no schooling. The difference in Children Ever Born among women aged 40-49 is 1.6 births between the same two educational groups. Age at marriage and contraceptive use, two key proximate determinants of fertility, are likewise strongly associated with women’s education. Attending at least some secondary school is a particularly important factor in marriage delay. Internally Displaced Persons generally follow the fertility and marriage patterns of Darfur, the region from which most of this population originates and is hosted. Overall, contraceptive prevalence remains low and fertility desires high. There is thus little to suggest that fertility rates in Sudan are likely to decline in the near future. However, the impacts of the conflict that began in mid-2023 on fertility can be unpredictable.

Suggested Citation

  • Maia Sieverding, 2024. "Determinants of Persistently High Fertility in Sudan," Working Papers 1706, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 May 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1706
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