The Juba Power-Sharing Peace Agreement: Will It Promote Peace and Democratic Transition in Sudan?

The signing of the Juba Agreement for Peace in Sudan (JAPS) constitutes an important step for the country to achieve lasting peace and complete its transition towards democracy. In this paper, we will review the JAPS in light of scientific evidence on the effectiveness of powersharing. Reviewing multiple studies that evaluate power-sharing, we conclude that a larger number of power-sharing provisions and the effective inclusion of previously marginalized ethnic groups increase the chances of peace. However, leaving out previously peaceful groups carries some risk. The beneficial effects of power-sharing provisions in peace agreements and ethnically inclusive governments pertain to the likelihood of democratic transitions. We find only weak evidence for the benefits of power-sharing in ensuring democratic survival due to the small number of post-conflict democracies that exist around the world. While the JAPS contains a reassuring number of power-sharing provisions and should be effective in bringing about stability and improving the chances of democratization according to the best available scientific evidence, much uncertainty remains. For Sudan to succeed in achieving lasting stability and effective democracy, political leaders will be required to respect the agreement and depend as much on positive background factors such as economic development outside the scope of the JAPS. To address these concerns, we propose five future initiatives: a national peace conference; a firm term limitation for the transitional authority; broad-based political parties and coalitions; a better institutionalized and sufficiently funded “Peace Fund”; and two national bargains in the critical areas of security reforms and transitional justice