The Tenacity of the Arab Spring in People’s Perception: Trends in Values Among Egyptians

This paper assesses three perspectives on the Arab Spring: (i) a movement toward liberal democracy, (ii) Islamic awakening, and (iii) a failed movement signifying autocratic recidivism. This paper contributes to this debate by analyzing changes in the political values of Egyptians in comparison with similar changes in Tunisia and Turkey, using survey data from Egypt since 2011 and two waves of a panel survey from the three countries between 2011 and 2016. On a macro level, it suggests that the 2011 upheavals represent the ushering in of a new cultural episode in Egypt, reflecting the decline of political Islam, the rise of secular values, and little support for a strongman rule. Given that similar changes in values have also occurred in Tunisia and Turkey, this paper argues that the events of 2011 point to a major shift in values across the three countries. On the micro level, this paper explains variation in attitude toward secular politics among Egyptians, by first constructing a secular-politics index. Then, using the Ordinary Least Square technique, it shows that those more favorable toward secular politics were: (i) more likely to have a higher socioeconomic status, (ii) Christians, (iii) male, (iv) younger, and (v) from the urban areas; (vi) more supportive of gender equality, (vii) more tolerant of other religions, (viii) more likely to define themselves primarily as Egyptian rather than Muslim, (ix) more supportive of secular politics in 2011; (x) more politically engaged; (xi) more likely to rely on domestic TV as an information source, (xii) more likely to believe in the decline of unlawful arrest between 2011 and 2016, (xiii) more likely to believe that the government acted democratically; (xiv) less concerned with Western cultural invasion, and (xv) more favorable toward Americans.