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Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia

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Abstract

This study simulates the economic effects of eastern enlargement of the EU and an EU-Russian free trade area. The main emphasis of the paper is on the effect this would have on the Russian economy. The simulations were carried out with a GTAP computable general equilibrium model, using the most recent GTAP database 6.0 beta, which takes the former Europe agreements between the EU-15 and the eight new Central and Eastern European member states into account. The results confirm the earlier findings that a free trade agreement with the EU is beneficial for Russia in terms of total output but not necessarily in terms of economic welfare when measured by equivalent variation. The main reason behind this is the deterioration that would occur in Russia’s terms of trade. Improved productivity in Russia would, however, make the free trade agreement with the EU advantageous.

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  • Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2005. "Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia," Economics Working Papers 036, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  • Handle: RePEc:epr:enepwp:036
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    2. Jesper Jensen & Thomas Rutherford & David Tarr, 2014. "The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 6, pages 125-149, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    5. Vaittinen, Risto, 2000. "Eastern Enlargement of the European Union - Transition in applicant countries and evaluation of the economic prospects with a dynamic CGE-model," Research Reports 64, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
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    7. Huff, Karen & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "Decomposing Welfare Changes in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 308, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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    9. Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2004. "EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 307-323, December.
    10. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Greenaway, David & Panagariya, Arvind, 1998. "Trading Preferentially: Theory and Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1128-1148, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Honkatukia, Juha & Kaitila, Ville & Kotilainen, Markku & Niemi, Janne, 2012. "Global trade and climate policy scenarios – Impact on Finland," Working Papers 37, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Kaitila, Ville, 2007. "Free Trade between the EU and Russia - Sectoral Effects and Impacts on Northwest Russia," Discussion Papers 1087, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. Johansson, Edvard & Böckerman, Petri & Prättälä, Ritva & Uutela, Antti, 2005. "Alcohol Mortality, Drinking Behavior, and Business Cycles: Are Slumps Really Dry Seasons?," Discussion Papers 986, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU; Russia; free trade; integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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