Out-migration in Venezuela in the XXI Century: an assessment of the potential GDP loss by using a computable general equilibrium framework

Venezuela has traditionally been a country receiving immigrants. These migrants contributed to the economic development of the country particularly during the 1950 - 1970. During the various economic crises of the 80s and 90s this role of receiver of immigrants has been giving to the role of exporter of skilled human resources. According to the World Bank (a figure that can be considered as conservative) population of Venezuelans abroad in 2013 double the figures of 2000. The doubling of out-migrants coincides with the arrival and enthronement of the so called "socialist revolution" characterized by populism, statist ruling, and the dismantling of the institutional framework of the country. The aim of the paper is to measure the effects of out-migration on potential output using a computable general equilibrium framework. The authors use a CGE model for Venezuela considering multiple households and up to 15 sectors with great detail of the energy sector. Preliminary results indicate that a 10% reduction in the size of the economically active population because of outmigration would reduce potential GDP in a range of 2.6% - 4.5% depending on the closure of the external sector.