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Fertility in an Unequal, Innovative World

Author

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  • Monisankar Bishnu
  • Chakshu Jain

Abstract

We develop a theory of the income-fertility relationship across all stages of development. Technological progress shapes fertility through two opposing channels: it raises the return to education, reducing desired family size, and it generates inequality which, depending on the development stage, can raise aggregate fertility. Their interaction produces a non-monotonic historical fertility path - rising in the Malthusian regime, falling during the demographic transition, and rising again at high income. A key implication is that inequality reshapes the composition of fertility across the human-capital distribution, changing the sign of the link between technological progress and long-run growth in a regime-dependent way. We provide empirical evidence consistent with the mechanism using US state-level data. Depending on how technological progress and inequality interact, the economy may achieve sustained growth, an Empty Planet, or Malthusian-like stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Monisankar Bishnu & Chakshu Jain, 2026. "Fertility in an Unequal, Innovative World," CAMA Working Papers 2026-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-46
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2026-06/46_2026_Bishnu_Jain.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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