When Policy Uncertainty Crosses Borders: Evidence from U.S. Export Dynamics

This paper examines how economic policy uncertainty shapes U.S. export dynamics, focusing on energy, food, and industrial exports. Using monthly U.S. data from 1995 to 2025, we first identify structural uncertainty shocks through structural vector autoregressions, then trace their effects using conventional and time-varying parameter local projections models, controlling for trade policy uncertainty, supply chain pressures, and macro-financial factors. Economic, monetary, and fiscal policy uncertainty all reduce exports, but monetary policy uncertainty leads to the deepest and most persistent contractions, while fiscal policy uncertainty has milder effects. Energy, food, and industrial exports display distinct, strongly state-dependent patterns, with responses amplified during the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. By jointly analyzing multiple uncertainty dimensions, export aggregates, and time variation in transmission, the paper reveals significant sectoral and regime dependence, offering actionable insights for policymakers, exporting firms, investors, and scholars of open-economy macroeconomics.