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The Global Reach of US Monetary Policy: Suggestive Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  • Kozo Ueda
  • Kota Watanabe

Abstract

Measuring service prices remains particularly challenging due to their inherent heterogeneity and lack of standardization, unlike goods whose prices are easily captured through scanner data. This study exploits newly available scanner data from approximately 1,000 Japanese restaurants covering the period 2018-2025, which record detailed information on every order. We construct indices for prices, quantities, and sales, and analyze the frequency and magnitude of price changes. Even though restaurant items are highly heterogeneous and less standardized than goods, price indices remain stable across different formulas. The indices exhibit only minimal biases from intratemporal (cross-sectional) and intertemporal substitution. Moreover, scanner-based restaurant prices align closely with CPI measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Kozo Ueda & Kota Watanabe, 2025. "The Global Reach of US Monetary Policy: Suggestive Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic," CAMA Working Papers 2025-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-61
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-11/61_2025_Ueda_Watanabe.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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