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Co-moving systems with explosive regressors and time-varying volatility: Evidence from the Spanish housing market

Author

Listed:
  • Blanco-Arroyo, Omar

    (Universidad de Valencia, Spain)

  • Esteve, Vicente

    (Universidad de Valencia, Spain)

  • Prats, María A.

    (Universidad de Murcia, Spain and European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK)

Abstract

This study investigates the co-explosivity between Spain's nominal house price index and the housing credit-to-GDP ratio over the period 1971-2024, with particular emphasis on the housing bubble years from 1998 to 2008. Applying the framework proposed by Chen et al. (2017), the analysis reveals an asymmetric relationship: house prices exhibit a stronger sensitivity to credit expansion than credit does to price increases, underscoring the disproportionate ifluence of credit on housing market dynamics. During the 1998-2008 bubble phase, the relationship becomes more symmetric, suggesting a feedback loop in which relaxed lending standards fueled housing demand, while rising prices reinforced further credit growth. This period is characterized by tighter coupling between the two variables, stronger co-movement, and faster correction dynamics indicative of speculative lending behavior. The findings highlight the importance of monitoring credit conditions to better understand and manage housing market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanco-Arroyo, Omar & Esteve, Vicente & Prats, María A., 2026. "Co-moving systems with explosive regressors and time-varying volatility: Evidence from the Spanish housing market," Working Papers 2601, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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