IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eec/wpaper/2515.html

Testing for co-explosive behavior between mortgages loans and house prices in the Spanish economy

Author

Listed:
  • Omar Blanco-Arroyo

    (Universidad de Valencia, Spain)

  • Vicente Esteve

    (Universidad de Valencia)

  • María A. Prats

    (Universidad de Murcia, Spain and European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK)

Abstract

In this paper, we apply the methodology developed by Evripidou et al. (2022) to assess the co-explosivity of explosive processes between housing credit and housing prices in the Spanish economy from 1971 to 2024. Our Öndings highlight a signiÖcant pattern of co-explosivity: a stable bubble relationship emerges when housing credit precedes hous- ing prices. This co-explosivity is evident for lead times of 2 to 5 years, with the strongest relationship observed at a 4-year lead. These results suggest that credit dynamics drive housing price bubbles, emphasizing the importance of targeting creditís leading e§ect for e§ective policy and market interventions to mitigate real estate bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar Blanco-Arroyo & Vicente Esteve & María A. Prats, 2025. "Testing for co-explosive behavior between mortgages loans and house prices in the Spanish economy," Working Papers 2515, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2515
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repecsrv.uv.es/paper/RePEc/pdf/eec_2515.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2515
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maria Arrazola & Jose de Hevia & Desiderio Romero-Jordan & Jose Felix Sanz-Sanz, 2015. "Long-run Supply and Demand Elasticities in the Spanish Housing Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 37(3), pages 371-404.
    2. Höynck, Christian & Roma, Moreno & Schlieker, Kathinka, 2025. "Developments in the recent euro area house price cycle," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    4. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    5. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    6. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov & Alexey Tsarev, 2023. "Time-Transformed Test for Bubbles under Non-stationary Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 1282-1307.
    7. Carlos Rodríguez & Ricardo Bustillo, 2010. "Modelling Foreign Real Estate Investment: The Spanish Case," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 354-367, October.
    8. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing: The Finnish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 747-756, April.
    9. David López-Rodríguez & María de los Llanos Matea, 2019. "Recent developments in the rental housing market in Spain," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    10. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    11. repec:oup:qjecon:v:136:y:2021:i:1:p:51-113. is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Philip Arestis & Ana González, 2014. "Bank credit and the housing market in OECD countries," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 467-490.
    13. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    14. Pana Alves & Alberto Urtasun, 2019. "Recent housing market developments in Spain," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUN.
    15. Andrey Pavlov & Susan M. Wachter, 2006. "The Inevitability of Marketwide Underpricing of Mortgage Default Risk," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(4), pages 479-496, December.
    16. Libertad Gonzalez & Francesc Ortega, 2013. "Immigration And Housing Booms: Evidence From Spain," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 37-59, February.
    17. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    18. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1079-1134, November.
    19. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Shi, Shu-Ping, 2018. "Financial Bubble Implosion And Reverse Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 705-753, August.
    20. Christian M. Hafner & Helmut Herwartz, 2009. "Testing for linear vector autoregressive dynamics under multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(3), pages 294-323, August.
    21. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    22. Gimeno, Ricardo & Martí­nez-Carrascal, Carmen, 2010. "The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1849-1855, August.
    23. Juan Jimeno & Tano Santos, 2014. "The crisis of the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 125-141, August.
    24. Albuquerque, Bruno & Cerutti, Eugenio & Kido, Yosuke & Varghese, Richard, 2026. "Not all housing cycles are created equal: Macroeconomic consequences of housing booms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    25. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    26. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1079-1134, November.
    27. Alberto Martín & Enrique Moral-Benito & Tom Schmitz, 2021. "The Financial Transmission of Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 1013-1053, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Blanco-Arroyo, Omar & Esteve, Vicente & Prats, María A., 2026. "Co-moving systems with explosive regressors and time-varying volatility: Evidence from the Spanish housing market," Working Papers 2601, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blanco-Arroyo, Omar & Esteve, Vicente & Prats, María A., 2026. "Co-moving systems with explosive regressors and time-varying volatility: Evidence from the Spanish housing market," Working Papers 2601, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    2. Adrian Fernández-Pérez & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2025. "El Clasico of Housing: Bubbles in Madrid and Barcelona’s Real Estate Markets," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2025-03, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    3. Corinna Ghirelli & Danilo Leiva-León & Alberto Urtasun, 2023. "Housing prices in Spain: convergence or decoupling?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 165-187, June.
    4. Emna Trabelsi, 2025. "Monetary Policy Transmission Under Global Versus Local Geopolitical Risk: Exploring Time-Varying Granger Causality, Frequency Domain, and Nonlinear Territory in Tunisia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-68, June.
    5. Gharib, Cheima & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Serret, Vanessa & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on crude oil prices: Evidence from Econophysics approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Kruse-Becher, Robinson & Letixerant, Philip, 2025. "Oil price expectations in explosive phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Wang, Xichen & Yan, Ji (Karena) & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2021. "Emerging stock market exuberance and international short-term flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta, 2025. "The role of geopolitical and climate risk in driving uncertainty in European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Yu, Lu & Li, Yanglin, 2023. "Testing factor models when asset bubbles occur: A time-varying perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    10. Esteve, Vicente & Prats, María A., 2023. "Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: The case of Spanish public debt," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Bubble contagion effect between the main precious metals," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(1), pages 43-63, March.
    12. Shuping Shi & Arafat Rahman & Ben Zhe Wang, 2020. "Australian Housing Market Booms: Fundamentals or Speculation?☆," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(315), pages 381-401, December.
    13. Alola, Andrew Adewale, 2022. "The nexus of renewable energy equity and agricultural commodities in the United States: Evidence of regime-switching and price bubbles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    14. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2026. "Fluctuation-type monitoring test for explosive behavior," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 230-249.
    15. Baum, Christopher F. & Hurn, Stan & Otero, Jesús, 2025. "The dynamics of U.S. industrial production: A time-varying Granger causality perspective," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 13-22.
    16. Bogdan, Dima & Ştefana Maria, Dima & Roxana, Ioan, 2022. "A Value-at-Risk forecastability indicator in the framework of a Generalized Autoregressive Score with “Asymmetric Laplace Distribution”," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    17. Li, Yi & Zhang, Wei & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei, 2022. "The role of media coverage in the bubble formation: Evidence from the Bitcoin market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Congregado, Emilio & Esteve, Vicente, 2022. "Cointegration with structural changes and classical model of inflation in Spain, 1830–1998," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 376-388.
    19. Yang, Bingduo & Long, Wei & Yang, Zihui, 2022. "Testing predictability of stock returns under possible bubbles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 246-260.
    20. Christian Kubitza, 2021. "Tackling the Volatility Paradox: Spillover Persistence and Systemic Risk," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 079, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vicente Esteve (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvales.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.