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Preparing subnational population projections: a manual for selected indirect methods

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  • Kayani, Ashraf K.

Abstract

Solo se contemplan los metodos indirectos de proyeccion, que son aquellos en que la poblacion de las areas o regiones se proyecta en relacion con la proyeccion para el total nacional. Los metodos indirectos mas usuales son: los matematicos, los economicos, los metodos de las razones y los de componentes. Como los metodos matematicos no son muy utiles para las proyecciones de areas pequenas, no se discuten en detalle. Los metodos de razones no se usan frecuentemente para este tipo de proyecciones; presentan problemas para la extrapolacion en areas de rapido crecimiento y no proporcionan una vision de los determinantes. Los metodos de componentes son los preferidos para estos fines por las ventajas que significan para el analista y el usuario, y porque se puede distinguir por separado el efecto de las tendencias de la fecundidad, la mortalidad y la migracion en el crecimiento demografico. Se incluyen ejemplos de aplicaciones de los dos ultimos tipos de metodos para proyectar la poblacion de Brasil y sus regiones.

Suggested Citation

  • Kayani, Ashraf K., 1980. "Preparing subnational population projections: a manual for selected indirect methods," Series Históricas 8690, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col048:8690
    Note: Includes bibliography
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    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/8690
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    1. Arretx, Carmen, 1973. "Estimación de la fecundidad a base de información sobre hijos nacidos vivos, recogida en censos sucesivos," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
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