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Asymmetric Information, Stock Returns and Monetary Policy: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

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  • Bedri Kamil Onur Tas

Abstract

It is known that stock returns are affected by monetary policy. This paper theoretically and empirically investigates whether asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public causes the relation between stock returns and monetary policy actions. The paper concludes that asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public is one of the reasons of effects of monetary policy actions on stock returns. A Kalman filter algorithm is constructed to analyze the information and learning dynamics between the Federal Reserve and a representative investor. Stock prices react to monetary policy actions because monetary policy actions reveal the private information that the Fed has about future inflation and output. Investors update their expectations after observing the Fed's actions and that produces a change in stock returns. The findings of the model are empirically investigated using VAR and impulse responses verify the theoretical findings

Suggested Citation

  • Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2004. "Asymmetric Information, Stock Returns and Monetary Policy: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 490, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:490
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    Keywords

    Asymmetric Information; Monetary Policy; Stock Returns; Kalman Filter; Learning;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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