Investment Effect of Emission Permits Banking under Technological Uncertainty
This paper analyzes investment effect of tradable permit program (TPP) when emission permits are bankable and there is technological uncertainty regarding abatement cost. In the absence of uncertainty, a firm's incentive to environmental investment decreases under a bankable TPP compared to a non-bankable TPP because the firm can use banked permits for future abatement compliance. However, when cost uncertainty is prevalent, there arises a real option value of environmental investment that may change a firm's investment strategy. The condition is derived under which a bankable TPP provides higher investment incentive than a non-bankable TPP.
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