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The value of marriage and fertility: A blueprint for a structural approach

Author

Listed:
  • Laurens Cherchye
  • Bram De Rock
  • Frederic Vermeulen
  • Paula Eugenia Gobbi

Abstract

Fertility has declined almost everywhere, yet the pattern of decline differs sharplyacross countries, education groups, and family forms. We argue that this heterogeneity is best understood through the value of marriage, that is, the surplus generated bypartnership relative to outside options. This surplus depends on preferences, the organization of work and childcare, bargaining positions, marriage market opportunities,social norms, and public policy. Children therefore do not simply enter utility; theyreshape both the gains from partnership and the way these gains are shared over time.Collective models enriched with marriage markets and limited commitment providea coherent framework for analyzing these mechanisms jointly. This perspective showshow similar fertility outcomes can emerge from very different underlying forces, such ashigh maternal career costs in one context and fragile unions with limited commitmentin another. It also highlights why structural models are essential for counterfactualpolicy analysis: they help isolate whether observed fertility patterns reflect changes inchildcare burdens, bargaining positions, or marriage-market conditions, and how thesemechanisms interact.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurens Cherchye & Bram De Rock & Frederic Vermeulen & Paula Eugenia Gobbi, 2026. "The value of marriage and fertility: A blueprint for a structural approach," Working Papers ECARES 2026-11, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/405189
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1.
    2. Agostinelli, Francesco & Doepke, Matthias & Sorrenti, Giuseppe & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2025. "A Stairway to Success: How Parenting Shapes Culture and Social Stratification," CEPR Discussion Papers 20951, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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