IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dur/durham/2026_06.html

Partisan Bias in Economic Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Marino-Fages

    (University of Durham)

Abstract

Rising political polarization may affect a key input for policy: household economic expectations. I study whether political preferences shape forecasts of inflation, unemployment, and exchange rates in an online experiment during Argentina’s 2023 presidential election (N=1,162). The design exogenously varies accuracy incentives and information about current indicators. Accuracy incentives reduce gaps in candidate-contingent forecasts, especially for the black market exchange rate and unemployment. Information provision reduces forecast dispersion but has weaker effects on partisan gaps. The results matter for survey design when eliciting household expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Marino-Fages, 2026. "Partisan Bias in Economic Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Argentina," Department of Economics Working Papers 2026_06, Durham University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dur:durham:2026_06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.durham.ac.uk/business/media/durham-university-business-school/about-us/departments/economics-and-finance/working-papers-pdfs/EconWP26_06.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dur:durham:2026_06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tatiana Damjanovic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deduruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.