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Tobin’S Q Versus Cape Versus Caper: Predicting Stock Market Returns Using Fundamentals and Momentum

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  • Ed Tower

Abstract

This paper predicts the stock market using Tobin’s q, momentum, the Campbell-Shiller CAPE, and a new variant of the CAPE, the CAPER—trend earnings calculated using regressions of log earnings on time. The CAPER is superior to the CAPE. But q emerges as by far the best of the predictors. Two versions of the model are built. The one with momentum predicts a 29% fall in real wealth over the eight years from end 2010. The one without momentum predicts real wealth to increase over all time horizons, but even after fifteen years, only a 32% increase in real wealth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ed Tower, 2012. "Tobin’S Q Versus Cape Versus Caper: Predicting Stock Market Returns Using Fundamentals and Momentum," Working Papers 12-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:12-02
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    Keywords

    CAPE; CAPER; Tobin’s q; momentum; stock market;

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