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Market Makers V's The General Public: A First Look at S&P500 Futures Trade Data

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Abstract

This paper considers 15 minute records of trading volume and traded prices coinciding with the reporting intervals required by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Records are extracted from trade records for market trade and also two way trade between market makers (CT1) and the general public (CT4) from January 1994 to June 2004. Futures price records are matched with S&P500 cash index price records. Simultaneous volatility models are specified and estimated to test trading volume to futures volatility lead/lag effects and also futures volatility to cash index volatility lead/lag effects. As we disaggregate from the market records to CT1 and CT4 records and further into year to year samples volume to futures volatility leading effects and also futures volatility to cash volatility leading effects dominate. The results raise important issues for risk management and dynamic hedging models employing intra-day trader data. A number of important issues for further analysis are also raised in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard L. Gannon, 2008. "Market Makers V's The General Public: A First Look at S&P500 Futures Trade Data," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2008_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:dkn:acctwp:aef_2008_02
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    File URL: http://www.deakin.edu.au/buslaw/aef/workingpapers/papers/2008_02aef.pdf
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    Keywords

    S&P500 Trade Data; Simultaneous Volatility; Volume; Lead/Lag;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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