Scaling Foreign Exchange Volatility
When asset returns are normally distributed the risk of an asset over a long return interval may be estimated by scaling the risk from shorter return intervals. While it is well known that asset returns are not normally distributed a key empirical question concerns the effect that scaling the volatility of dependent processes will have on the pricing of related financial assets. This study provides an insight into this issue by investigating the return properties of the most important currencies traded in spot markets against the U.S. dollar: the Deutsche mark, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, and the British pound, during the period from January 1985 to December 1998. The novelty of this paper is that the volatility properties of the series are tested utilizing statistical procedures developed from fractal geometry after adjusting for dependence in the series, with the economic impact determined within an option-pricing framework. The results demonstrate that scaling risk underestimates the actual level of risk for all four series investigated. However while the call and put premiums on Deutsche mark, Swiss franc and yen options are too low, those on the English pound are not. In our discussion of the possible sources of option under-pricing both conditional heteroskedasticity and underpricing bias by the Black-Scholes model have been considered. However, these factors were unable to account for the very high levels of underpricing reported. In conclusion, these results highlight the complex behaviour of financial asset returns and the inability of general pricing models to completely and accurately describe this behaviour.
|Date of creation:||21 Jan 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 61 3 9244 3815
Web page: http://www.deakin.edu.au/buslaw/aef/index.php
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
- Barkoulas, John T & Labys, Walter C & Onochie, Joseph I, 1999. "Long Memory In Futures Prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 91-100, February.
- van de Gucht, Linda M. & Dekimpe, Marnik G. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1996. "Persistence in foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 191-220, April.
- Lo, Andrew W, 1991.
"Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-313, September.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan), 1989. "Long-term memory in stock market prices," Working papers 3014-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Tom Doan, . "RSSTATISTIC: RATS procedure to compute R/S Statistic (classical or Lo's modified)," Statistical Software Components RTS00191, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Andrew W. Lo, 1989. "Long-term Memory in Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 2984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Batten, Jonathan & Ellis, Craig & Fetherston, Thomas A., 2000. "Are long-term return anomalies illusions?: Evidence from the spot Yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 337-349, December.
- repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-358837 is not listed on IDEAS
- Eugene F Fama, .
"Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavioral Finance,"
CRSP working papers
448, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
- Eugene F. Fama, . "Market Efficiency, Long-term Returns, and Behavioral Finance," CRSP working papers 340, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992.
" Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998.
"Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp303, Financial Markets Group.
- Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan G & White, Halbert, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," CEPR Discussion Papers 1976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tucker, Alan L & Pond, Lallon, 1988. "The Probability Distribution of Foreign Exchange Price Changes: Tests of Candidate Processes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 638-47, November.
- Schwert, G William, 2002.
"Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Jin-Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32.
- Phillip Kearns & Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Estimating The Density Tail Index For Financial Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 171-175, May.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
- Batten, Jonathan & Ellis, Craig, 2001.
"Scaling relationships of Gaussian processes,"
Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 291-296, September.
- Batten, Jonathan & Craig Ellis, 2001. "Scaling Relationships of Gaussian Processes," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2001_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dkn:acctwp:aef_2001_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr Xueli Tang)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.