In pursuit of security: Armed conflict and support for democracy in Mali

This paper studies how armed conflict affects public attitudes to democracy. We analyze the role of both experience and fear of violence in support for basic democratic principles and preference for democratic rule in Mali, a country torn by a multi-dimensional conflict since 2012. We combine event location data with sub-nationally representative household survey data including first-hand add-on survey modules on governance, peace and security collected yearly from 2014 to 2019. On the one hand, we find that exposure to violence has a small negative to zero effect on attitudes to democracy. Our results are robust to recent eventstudy approaches as well as to selection into migration. Behind the null effect of violence lie heterogeneities based on the identity of the armed group involved. On the other hand, fear of conflict has strong negative impacts on the public’s commitment to democratic values and support for democracy. Greater support for military rule from fearful individuals is driven by those living in areas not affected by the conflict. In conflict-free areas, citizens are willing to forgo certain freedoms in pursuit of greater security.