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Poverty dynamics in Peru, 1997-1999


  • Javier Herrera

    () (DIAL, IRD, Paris)


(English) How has poverty changed during the 1997-99 period, when the Peruvian economic performance deteriorated seriously under the negative impact of the international financial crisis? The answer to this question has traditionally relied on cross-section comparisons of poverty indicators. In this paper we extend the analysis first by examining the robustness of these kind of comparisons by considering sampling errors and stochastic dominance and second, by analyzing poverty transitions for households present in the three years of our panel data. Besides transition mobility matrices, we calculated the newer economic mobility index proposed by Fields and Ok and estimated a multinomial logit model of poverty transitions including not only individual and household characteristics but also local geographical variables concerning mainly the provision of public goods. Finally, anti-poverty programs were then evaluated on the basis of static and dynamic poverty approaches. _________________________________ (français) Comment la pauvreté a-t-elle évolué pendant les années 1997-1999, période durant laquelle les performances de l’économie péruvienne se sont sérieusement détériorées sous l’effet négatif de la crise financière internationale ? La réponse à cette question se base traditionnellement sur des comparaisons en coupe instantanée des indicateurs de pauvreté. Dans ce rapport, nous élargissons l’analyse en examinant tout d’abord la fiabilité de ce type de comparaisons à travers la prise en compte des erreurs d’échantillonnage, et ensuite en analysant les transitions de pauvreté des ménages présents durant les trois années de notre panel. En plus des matrices de mobilité de transitions, nous avons calculé un indice de mobilité plus récent proposé par Fields et Ok et estimé un modèle logit multinomial de transition de pauvreté, comprenant non seulement les caractéristiques des individus et des ménages, mais aussi les variables géographiques locales concernant principalement la fourniture des biens publics. Enfin, les programmes de lutte contre la pauvreté ont été évalués sur la base d’approches statiques et dynamiques de la pauvreté.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Herrera, 2001. "Poverty dynamics in Peru, 1997-1999," Working Papers DT/2001/09, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200109

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    Cited by:

    1. Gambetta Podesta, Renzo, 2007. "Poverty Dynamics in Peru 2001-2003: A Probit Model Analysis," MPRA Paper 3723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/776 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Garza-Rodriguez, Jorge & Fernández-Ramos, Jennifer & Garcia-Guerra, Ana K. & Morales-Ramirez, Gabriela, 2015. "The dynamics of poverty in Mexico: A multinomial logistic regression analysis," MPRA Paper 77743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Slon, Pablo & Zúñiga, Edwin, 2006. "Poverty dynamics in Costa Rica with panel data from cross-sections," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4977 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hamadou Daouda, Youssoufou, 2010. "Dynamiques de la pauvreté au Niger
      [Dynamics of poverty in Niger]
      ," MPRA Paper 73162, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    poverty dynamics; inequality; Peru; multinomial logit;

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution


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