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Using of Non-Numeric, Non-Exact and Non-Complete Information for Alternatives’ Probabilities Estimation

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  • Nikolai V. Hovanov
  • Maria S. Yudaeva

Abstract

A method of alternatives’ probabilities estimation under deficiency of numeric information (obtained from different sources) is proposed. The method is based on the well known Bayesian model of uncertainty randomization. Additional non-numeric, non-exact, and non-complete information about the sources’ significance are used for final estimation of the alternatives’ probabilities. Some examples of the method application to commodities’ prices and currencies rates dynamics forecasting are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolai V. Hovanov & Maria S. Yudaeva, 2011. "Using of Non-Numeric, Non-Exact and Non-Complete Information for Alternatives’ Probabilities Estimation," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_010, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  • Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_010
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    File URL: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/papers/degit_16/c016_010.pdf
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    Keywords

    Ordinal and Interval Information; Randomization of Uncertainty; Random Probabilities;

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