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The dollar and the German stock market: determination of exposure to and pricing of exchange rate risk using APT-modelling

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  • Entorf, Horst
  • Jamin, Gösta

Abstract

We estimate the impact of dollar changes on the value of German DAX corporations, using APT-modelling for the period 1977 - 1995. Several macroeconomic risk factors, including the dollar and a residual market factor representing the general market risk, are specified. The general notion is that the export-oriented German companies should benefit from increasing dollar values. We find time-varying dollar exposure presumably depending on the prevailing trade regime. Dollar sensitivity is positive as expected in periods with a positive trade balance, whereas it turns negative in periods with a negative trade balance (e.g., in the first half of the 1980s). APT-modelling simultaneously considers exchange rate exposure and risk-premia of macroeconomic risk factors, the latter also being unstable over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Entorf, Horst & Jamin, Gösta, 2008. "The dollar and the German stock market: determination of exposure to and pricing of exchange rate risk using APT-modelling," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77453, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
  • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:77453
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/77453/
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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