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The Impact of Backwardation on Hedgers' Demand for Currency Futures Contracts: Theory versus Empirical Evidence

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  • Röthig, Andreas

Abstract

This study compares the relation between backwardation and optimal hedging demand as suggested by economic theory to empirical findings concerning the impact of weak and strong backwardation on hedgers' trading volume in six long and short currency futures contracts. First, the optimal hedging demand of a representative importer, with and without hedging costs, is derived. Then hedgers' position data from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report are regressed on weak and strong backwardation. The empirical results offer little support for the hypotheses suggested by economic theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Röthig, Andreas, 2008. "The Impact of Backwardation on Hedgers' Demand for Currency Futures Contracts: Theory versus Empirical Evidence," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77424, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
  • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:77424
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/77424/
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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