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La crise du chômage en Europe : Une Interprétation keynésienne

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  • Franco MODIGLIANI

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

L'objectif de cet article est d'expliquer le chômage de masse, tel qu'il existe depuis plus d'une décennie dans les pays européens. Il est affirmé que sa cause réside dans une offre réelle de monnaie insuffisante, conjuguée avec une politique budgétaire trop restrictive. En découlent des taux d'intérêt à long terme trop élevés, une demande agrégée insuffisante, une pénurie d'offres d'emploi et, finalement, le chômage de masse. Il est affirmé que cette politique désastreuse d'offre monétaire réelle inadéquate est imposée par l'Allemagne au reste du SME, d'abord par le jeu d'une politique de taux d'intérêts élevés et ensuite par l'adhésion aux parités fixes à l'intérieur du SME. Cette fixité qui, initialement était une règle s'imposant aux pays membres, aujourd'hui n'existe plus que du fait de leur bon vouloir. Ce choix, pense-t-on, est nécessaire à la mise en œuvre du Traité de Maastricht, quel que soit son coût en termes de chômage et de gaspillage de ressources. Dans l'article, il est, au contraire, affirmé qu'il faudrait envisager l'hypothèse inverse, à savoir qu'un tel choix risque de ruiner l'idée d'unité monétaire, de par la preuve tangible qu'il donne de son coût désastreux.

Suggested Citation

  • Franco MODIGLIANI, 1995. "La crise du chômage en Europe : Une Interprétation keynésienne," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1995021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:1995021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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