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Temporal Aggregation Bias in Stock-Flow Models

Author

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  • Burdett, Kenneth
  • Coles, Melvyn G
  • van Ours, Jan C

Abstract

The matching function describes the flow of job creation as a function of the stocks of unemployed and vacancies. Most empirical work tries to identify such a relationship by regressing the flow of matches (aggregated over the month) on the stocks of unemployment and vacancies measured at the beginning of that month. It is shown that estimates obtained using this procedure will be downward biased if unemployment and vacancies are mean-reverting processes. If the bias is small, the size of the bias is proportional to the length of the period interval. By further aggregating the data, say from monthly to quarterly data, the downward bias should triple. The resulting change in the parameter estimates can then be used to estimate the size of the original bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Burdett, Kenneth & Coles, Melvyn G & van Ours, Jan C, 1994. "Temporal Aggregation Bias in Stock-Flow Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:967
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    Keywords

    Matching; Temporal Aggregation Bias;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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