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Postponing Retirement: the Political Push of Aging

  • Galasso, Vincenzo

Conventional economic wisdom suggests because of the aging process, social security systems will have to be retrenched. In particular, retirement age will have to be largely increased. Yet, is this policy measure feasible in OECD countries? Since the answer belongs mainly to the realm of politics, I evaluate the political feasibility of postponing retirement under aging in France, Italy, the UK, and the US. Simulations for the year 2050 steady state demographic, economic and political scenario suggest that retirement age will be postponed in all countries, while the social security contribution rate will rise in all countries, but Italy. The political support for increasing the retirement age stems mainly from the negative income effect induced by aging, which reduces the profitability of the existing social security system, and thus the individuals net social security wealth.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5777.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5777
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  1. Vincenzo Galasso, 2006. "The Political Future of Social Security in Aging Societies," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072734, June.
  2. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub99-1, December.
  3. CREMER, Helmuth & PESTIEAU, Pierre, . "Reforming our pension system: is it a demographic, financial or political problem?," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1468, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Conde-Ruiz, José Ignacio & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2003. "The Macroeconomics of Early Retirement," CEPR Discussion Papers 3896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Georges Casamatta & Helmuth Cremer & Pierre Pestieau, 2005. "Voting on Pensions with Endogenous Retirement Age," Post-Print halshs-00754105, HAL.
  6. Conde-Ruiz, José Ignacio & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2000. "Early Retirement," CEPR Discussion Papers 2589, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. CREMER, Helmuth & PESTIEAU, Pierre, . "The double dividend of postponing retirement," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1696, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Tito Boeri & Axel Boersch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2002. "Pension Reforms and the Opinions of European Citizens," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 396-401, May.
  9. Francisco M. Lagos & Juan Antonio Lacomba, 2001. "Election On Retirement Age," Working Papers. Serie AD 2001-09, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  10. Helmuth Cremer & Jean-Marie Lozachmeur & Pierre Pestieau, 2002. "Social Security, Retirement Age and Optimal Income Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 693, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso & Paola Profeta, 2005. "Early Retirement and Social Security: A Long Term Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 1571, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2007. "How does ageing affect the welfare state?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 554-563, June.
  13. Sveinbjörn Blöndal & Stefano Scarpetta, 1999. "The Retirement Decision in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 202, OECD Publishing.
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