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The Buffer-Stock Model and the Aggregate Propensity to Consume: A Panel-Data Study of the US States

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  • Sørensen, Bent E
  • Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose

Abstract

We simulate a buffer-stock model of consumption, explicitly aggregate over consumers, and estimate aggregate marginal propensities to consume out of current and lagged income using simulated data generated by the model. We calculate the predicted marginal effects of changing persistence of income shocks, aggregate-level uncertainty, and individual-level risk. Next, we estimate marginal propensities for US states using panel-data methods. We find effects of persistence that clearly correspond to the predictions of the model and while the effect of aggregate uncertainty cannot be determined precisely, indicators of individual level uncertainty have strong effects consistent with the model. Overall, the buffer-stock model clearly helps explain differences in consumer behaviour across states.

Suggested Citation

  • Sørensen, Bent E & Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose, 2004. "The Buffer-Stock Model and the Aggregate Propensity to Consume: A Panel-Data Study of the US States," CEPR Discussion Papers 4474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4474
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurt Kratena & Mark Sommer & Gerhard Streicher & Simone Salotti & Juan Manuel Valderas Jaramillo, 2017. "FIDELIO 2: Overview and Theoretical Foundations of the Second Version of the Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output Model for the EU 27," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61880, Juni.
    2. Kurt Kratena & Mark Sommer, 2014. "Labour Market Policy and Environmental Fiscal Devaluation: A Cure for Spain in the Aftermath of the Great Recession?," WIFO Working Papers 476, WIFO.
    3. Savoia, Ettore, 2023. "The effects of labor income risk heterogeneity on the marginal propensity to consume," Working Paper Series 2866, European Central Bank.
    4. Tim Jackson & Ben Drake & Peter Victor & Kurt Kratena & Mark Sommer, 2014. "Foundations for an Ecological Macroeconomics. Literature Review and Model Development. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 65," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47497, April.
    5. Kurt Kratena & Mark Sommer, 2014. "Model Simulations of Resource Use Scenarios for Europe. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 5," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47503, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Buffer-stock; Consumption; Precautionary saving;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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