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Stablecoins and the Future of Payments: Evidence from Financial Markets

Author

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  • Copestake, Alexander
  • Englander, Cage
  • Martínez Pería, Maria Soledad
  • Villegas-Bauer, Germán

Abstract

We examine whether financial markets expect stablecoins to play an important role in payments. After the decisive congressional vote on the GENIUS Act, the market value of payment incumbents fell by 1.3 percent ($21.5 billion) relative to other financial firms, consistent with stablecoins increasing competition in payments. The decline was larger for firms focused on cross-border payments, and smaller for those protected by network effects or offering crypto services. Accounting for anticipation using prediction markets, we estimate that the Act re- duced the value of incumbent payment firms by 13–27 percent ($220–470 billion), exceeding the impact of recent pro-competitive regulatory shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Copestake, Alexander & Englander, Cage & Martínez Pería, Maria Soledad & Villegas-Bauer, Germán, 2026. "Stablecoins and the Future of Payments: Evidence from Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 22156, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:22156
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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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