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The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Railroads on Mexico-US Migration

Author

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  • Escamilla-Guerrero, David
  • Peri, Giovanni

Abstract

We exploit variation in access to Mexico's early-1900s railroad network to estimate its short- and long-run effects on US migration. Instrumenting access with least-cost paths between historical cities, we find that railroads increased migration rates fourfold, while also spurring urbanization and development. The key mechanism was sequential migration: railroads channeled people to railroad hubs, then onward to the US. A century later, long after railroads became obsolete, railroad-connected locations show lower migration rates, consistent with growth reducing emigration incentives. Yet destination choices persist: locations that favored specific US destinations in the 1900s still do today, reflecting durable migrant networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Escamilla-Guerrero, David & Peri, Giovanni, 2026. "The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Railroads on Mexico-US Migration," CEPR Discussion Papers 22020, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:22020
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP22020
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    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • N36 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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