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Local Methods for Large Transfers

Author

Listed:
  • Bayer, Christian
  • Briglia, Luigi-Maria
  • Luetticke, Ralph
  • Weiß, Maximilian
  • Winkelmann, Yannik

Abstract

Large fiscal transfers shift households between regions with high and low marginal propensities to consume (MPCs), resulting in nonlinear aggregate responses. We develop a Nonlinear DEGM Update (NDU) method that shifts the wealth distribution nonlinearly over a short time window while solving the aggregate economy using a fast, first-order state-space approximation. A 10 percent transfer of annual GDP increases output by 4.5 percent in the nonlinear and NDU solutions, but by 12.0 percent in the linear solution. The empirical liquid-wealth distribution around zero disciplines this nonlinearity and exhibits a strong asymmetry. A stochastic debt-entry cost closely reproduces this empirical pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayer, Christian & Briglia, Luigi-Maria & Luetticke, Ralph & Weiß, Maximilian & Winkelmann, Yannik, 2026. "Local Methods for Large Transfers," CEPR Discussion Papers 21913, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21913
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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