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Downton Revisited: Income Shocks and Aristocratic Marriage Markets, 1840–1913

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  • Taylor, Mark

Abstract

We develop a transferable-utility model in which the collapse of arable estate income reshaped the aristocratic marriage market. The model predicts two cash-for-prestige substitution channels: a durable senior shift toward American brides, especially liquid new-money fortunes, and a transitory junior shift toward British commercial commoners, whose wealth scaled only weakly with rank. Analyzing 6,018 aristocratic marriages over 1840–1913, we combine trend-adjusted time-series evidence with cross-sectional exposure gradients in estate value and family size. American marriages rise as real wheat prices fall, especially among senior, larger-estate, and larger-family peers; new-money brides rise from 20% to 60% of classified American matches.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Mark, 2026. "Downton Revisited: Income Shocks and Aristocratic Marriage Markets, 1840–1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 21884, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21884
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C78 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation

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