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Coal Supply Chains and Electricity Reliability

Author

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  • Imelda, Imelda
  • Srinivasan, Suchita

Abstract

Can localized weather shocks to upstream fuel suppliers undermine down-stream electricity reliability? Using administrative data linking South African power plants to contracted coal mines from 2015 to 2024, we combine plant operating records, mining-firm revenue data, and route-level traffic sensor data. Exploiting within-plant variation in supplier-mine rainfall, we find that rainfall shocks reduce mine output and lower coal plant availability. Daily traffic data confirm that rainfall reduces coal deliveries along contracted mine-to-plant routes. These disruptions propagate to the grid, contributing to rolling blackouts. Electricity security hinges on the resilience of coal supplyn contracts and logistics, not only on plant resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Imelda, Imelda & Srinivasan, Suchita, 2026. "Coal Supply Chains and Electricity Reliability," CEPR Discussion Papers 21865, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21865
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP21865
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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