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Anecdotes or Statistics?

Author

Listed:
  • Bardhi, Arjada
  • Bobkova, Nina

Abstract

Why might persuaders favor anecdotes over aggregate statistics? We study a policy advocate choosing between them to persuade a diverse, skeptical citizenry with demographically correlated outcomes. Two forces compete: an umbrella effect, by which everyone responds more strongly to the statistic, and a wild-card effect, by which the anecdote's higher variance makes favorable realizations likelier. The anecdote prevails under sufficiently narrow consensus, so its appeal has a rational, informational basis. When breadth of aggregation is flexible, the optimal evidence is a local statistic that aggregates over a broader subpopulation than the minimal winning coalition, though almost anecdotal as consensus narrows.

Suggested Citation

  • Bardhi, Arjada & Bobkova, Nina, 2026. "Anecdotes or Statistics?," CEPR Discussion Papers 21737, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21737
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP21737
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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