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From Stocks to Flows: Debt Service and Fiscal Sustainability

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  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Menuet, Maxime
  • Donnat, Gregory

Abstract

We revisit fiscal sustainability through the lens of the government’s budget constraint. What constrains fiscal policy is not the stock of outstanding liabilities per se, but the fiscal cost of servicing debt. Using two centuries of U.S. fiscal data (1800–2023) and a long-run panel of advanced economies, we show that primary surpluses are systematically more closely associated with debt-service burdens, while debt ratios lose explanatory power when debt service is taken into account. Fiscal responses intensify when financing conditions deteriorate, specifically when the interest-growth differential is positive. We rationalize these findings using a simple flow-based framework in which debt stabilization depends on the responsiveness of fiscal surpluses to financing pressures. The results suggest that fiscal sustainability depends less on debt thresholds than on financing regimes and governments’ ability to absorb debt-service burdens.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry & Menuet, Maxime & Donnat, Gregory, 2026. "From Stocks to Flows: Debt Service and Fiscal Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 21723, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21723
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Eduardo Amaral & Rafael Guerra & Alejandrina Salcedo & Pablo Tomasini & Christian Upper, 2026. "High public debt in the Americas: non-linear implications for risk premia and inflation expectations," BIS Bulletins 133, Bank for International Settlements.

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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