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Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket

Author

Listed:
  • Akey, Pat
  • Grégoire, Vincent
  • Harvie, Nicolas
  • Martineau, Charles

Abstract

We study trading gains and losses on Polymarket, the largest prediction market by trading volume. Using 588 million trades ($67 billion in volume), we show that the gains are highly concentrated: the top 1% of users with positive PnL capture 76.5% of profits. Successful traders provide liquidity using limit orders that resolve favorably relative to realized outcomes while unsuccessful traders take liquidity using market orders. Monthly performance is modestly persistent, however this may represent sample selection rather than skill. A detailed analysis of the trading behavior of the most successful accounts suggests that “insider†trading is unlikely to explain the performance of the largest winners.

Suggested Citation

  • Akey, Pat & Grégoire, Vincent & Harvie, Nicolas & Martineau, Charles, 2026. "Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket," CEPR Discussion Papers 21615, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21615
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP21615
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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