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Beyond Oil: The Origins of Commodity Price Fluctuations

Author

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  • Lumbanraja, Alvin
  • Mouabbi, Sarah
  • Passari, Evgenia
  • Rousset Planat, Adrien

Abstract

Commodity supply shocks are a plausible but empirically elusive source of business-cycle fluctuations. We develop a comprehensive framework to measure them, constructing daily supply and demand proxies for 20 commodities — spanning energy, metals, agriculture, and livestock — from textual analysis of over one million news articles (2001-2023). These measures allow us to separate supply from demand across the full commodity market, not just oil. A striking finding emerges: non-oil supply disruptions affect inflation and industrial production at least as strongly as oil disturbances, a result previously undocumented in the literature. Transmission varies sharply with countries' commodity trade positions: net importers experience more persistent output contractions and stronger inflation pass-through, while net exporters are partially insulated.

Suggested Citation

  • Lumbanraja, Alvin & Mouabbi, Sarah & Passari, Evgenia & Rousset Planat, Adrien, 2026. "Beyond Oil: The Origins of Commodity Price Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 21244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21244
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