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Random Connections and Violence in the French Revolution

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  • Van Coppenolle, Brenda
  • Vanden Eynde, Oliver

Abstract

Networks can help political actors survive violence in revolutions. Connections could protect against reprisals and provide information. However, personal networks are not randomly assigned, making it difficult to causally trace their role. The French Constituent Assembly of 1789 randomly assigned legislators to smaller groups, which we use to assess outcomes in the ensuing revolution such as violent death and emigration. Violent death was contagious among the nobility in these networks. However, connections to two key leaders, Lafayette and Robespierre, were protective against violent death, encouraging emigration, regardless of ideological differences. We argue that nobles drew an informational advantage from their connections.

Suggested Citation

  • Van Coppenolle, Brenda & Vanden Eynde, Oliver, 2026. "Random Connections and Violence in the French Revolution," CEPR Discussion Papers 21171, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21171
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative

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