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A Long-Run Perspective on Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing: Evidence from U.S. Industrialization

Author

Listed:
  • Klein, Alexander
  • León-Ledesma, Miguel
  • Crafts, Nicholas

Abstract

This paper examines long-run unconditional convergence of labour productivity in manufacturing across 48 contiguous U.S. states. We construct a detailed panel data set of state-industry pairs with over 120 industries covering the period 1880-2007. The remarkable finding is a rapid rate of unconditional β-convergence: 7.6% per year in the period 1880-2007, and about 6.5% in each period 1880-1940 and 1958-2007. We also find a steep rise in unconditional convergence from 5.5% in 1930-1940 to 10.6% in 1940-1947 and 9.4% in 1947-1958, followed by a considerable drop thereafter. In the years 1958-2007, the rate of convergence in ICT industries (8.3%) is higher than in 1st-Industrial-Revolution (6.3%) or 2nd-Industrial-Revolution (7.0%) industries. We interpret our results as a process of technological catch up between initially laggard Southern manufacturing and manufacturing industries in the North.

Suggested Citation

  • Klein, Alexander & León-Ledesma, Miguel & Crafts, Nicholas, 2025. "A Long-Run Perspective on Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing: Evidence from U.S. Industrialization," CEPR Discussion Papers 20488, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20488
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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