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Beyond Hot Spots: Enhancing Police Effectiveness by Incorporating a Spatial Network Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Giulietti, Corrado
  • McConnell, Brendon
  • Zenou, Yves

Abstract

How can crime be disrupted most effectively without increasing resources? To answer this question, we develop a spatial network model to analyse crime diffusion, using London as a case study. Moving beyond traditional hot spot policing, we identify key player neighbourhoods- highly connected areas in the network. Our analysis reveals that while hot spots mainly attract crime locally, key player neighbourhoods predominantly propagate it. Simulations show that targeting the top 10% of key players reduces crime by 10.7% (5.8 percentage points) more than hot spot strategies. This approach offers a cost-effective solution, with potential annual savings exceeding 130 million pounds.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulietti, Corrado & McConnell, Brendon & Zenou, Yves, 2025. "Beyond Hot Spots: Enhancing Police Effectiveness by Incorporating a Spatial Network Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 20065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20065
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP20065
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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