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Missing Persistence: Measurement Errors and US Inflation before WW1

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  • Gerlach, Stefan
  • Stuart, Rebecca

Abstract

It is often noted that US inflation showed little persistence before WW1. It is also often noted historical price series are measured with error. Yet, the question of how such measurement errors could impact on estimates of persistence has not been studied in the literature. We use instrumental variables to study inflation persistence from 1784 to 2023. Before the publication of official price series in 1913, the estimated degree of persistence more than doubles when IV is used. Our findings suggest that inflation persistence is almost unchanged over the last 140 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2025. "Missing Persistence: Measurement Errors and US Inflation before WW1," CEPR Discussion Papers 20063, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20063
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    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP20063
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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